2016 second half of the year is expected to rebound in the second half of the crude oil
At the beginning of the new year, the market supply and demand in the case of no significant improvement in the market, prices remain low shock. After many favorable factors such as hedge and other positive factors to boost oil prices to rebound, but only a flash in the pan, the price hit the top in the middle of the fall. After mid October, the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to continue to heat up, OPEC continue to maintain high yield directly led to the lowest price since breaking 2008 lows. After entering the 2016 international crude oil prices continue to be low, however, the second half is expected to rebound.
In macroeconomic terms, in 2015, the global economic recovery momentum is still weak, the consumer price level has always been in low operation, the global economic growth rate is expected to be only 2.6%, far below the level of potential output. Global economic growth is expected to remain weak in 2016, the market is still facing the risk of pressure. Moreover, the developed countries have a clear differentiation of monetary policy, the Fed's interest rate hike and the dollar will further bring about a global impact. In addition, the aging population, geopolitical unrest and other negative factors, the short time the global economy is difficult to return to the strong growth of the track.
Supply, the U.S. crude oil production is expected to decline slightly more than last year, but with the progress of shale oil mining technology, production will be reduced relatively limited. OPEC member countries will still make full production, which still has a larger increment from Iran and Iraq, but the second half is expected to decline in production.
Demand side, in 2015 the global economic recovery momentum sluggish performance, the market for crude oil consumption growth showed a downward trend. The United States as the world's largest consumer of crude oil, its overall economic recovery, low oil prices to promote the automotive and aviation and other aspects of crude oil consumption, but the overall economy is a drag on the demand for crude oil. China's economy is in industrial investment growth gradually transformed for the service industry is driven process, and economic slowdown, industrial production and import and export declined sharply, despite low oil prices to stimulate the consumption of crude oil, but oil demand weakened. At the same time, the euro zone and the Japanese economy failed to get rid of the crisis, and the growth of the emerging market slowdown, and even Brazil, Russia and other countries have negative growth, the global market demand for crude oil weakened.
While crude oil consumption growth in 2015 showed a downward trend, low oil prices to promote the automobile and aviation and other aspects of crude oil consumption, but the overall economy is a drag on the demand for crude oil. China's economic slowdown, the sharp decline in industrial production and import and export, the euro zone and the Japanese economy failed to get rid of the crisis, global demand is expected to be able to pick up the 2016 oil market is expected to become the focus. In addition, the excess supply of crude oil is a serious cause of oil pressure of the main factors, from the point of view of the global market, the biggest producer of crude oil are not practical and effective to reduce crude oil production initiatives and global economic recovery kinetic energy shortage resulting in crude oil consumption ability weakened, which makes the oil price feel the pressure.
At the same time, in 2015 the situation in the Middle East oil around the raging like a storm, the game is staged continuously. And, in 2016, geopolitical factors are expected to continue to play an important role in the volatility of oil prices.
Looking ahead in 2016, the first half of the international oil prices will continue to maintain a low level of crude oil prices, and with the slow down in the middle of crude oil production and future demand to pick up, the second half is expected to rebound in oil prices. But the long-term price stabilization is still dependent on the improvement of the macroeconomic side, especially in emerging markets, the stability of the financial market.